Extending Omnidirectional Hedging Through the Social Dimension of Shelter Theory: Small-State Strategy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Giedrius Kviklys; Sanat Kushkumbayev

doi:10.52536/3006-807X.2026-3.005

Авторы

Гедрюс Квиклис Университет Витовта Великого, Литва Автор https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9955-6220
Санат Кушкумбаев Казахстанский институт стратегических исследований, Казахстан Автор https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7758-0555

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52536/3006-807X.2026-3.005

Ключевые слова:

внешняя политика, малые государства, международные отношения, Центральная Азия, Казахстан, Узбекистан

Аннотация

В статье рассматривается теоретическая комплементарность между теорией «укрытия» (shelter theory) и концепцией всестороннего хеджирования во внешней политике малых и средних государств. Оба подхода предлагают альтернативу таким традиционным концепциям, как балансирование, присоединение к сильному (bandwagoning) и нейтралитет, которые зачастую не способны объяснить многомерные стратегии государств, действующих в условиях асимметричной геополитической среды. Автор обосновывает возможность интеграции теории «укрытия» и концепции всестороннего хеджирования в единую аналитическую рамку путем включения в последнюю социального измерения, заимствованного из теории «укрытия». Предлагаемый подход особенно актуален для Центральной Азии, где государствам приходится лавировать под давлением со стороны России, Китая, западных акторов и региональных институтов. На основе качественного концептуального анализа и примеров Казахстана и Узбекистана в статье показано, что хеджирование представляет собой не только стратегию диверсификации в сферах дипломатии, экономики и безопасности, но и процесс, глубоко укорененный в социальной среде и зависящий от внутренней легитимности, открытости общества, уровня образования, мобильности и общественной поддержки. Многовекторная внешняя политика Казахстана и стратегия открытости Узбекистана демонстрируют, как социальная стабильность и развитие общества подкрепляют внешнюю диверсификацию и стратегическую автономию. Включение социального измерения в концепцию всестороннего хеджирования позволяет статье внести вклад в теорию внешней политики малых государств, а также в исследования в области хеджирования и евразийские исследования.

Биографии авторов

Гедрюс Квиклис, Университет Витовта Великого, Литва

PhD докторант, Университет Витовта Великого, Литва
Санат Кушкумбаев, Казахстанский институт стратегических исследований, Казахстан

Главный научный сотрудник, Казахстанский институт стратегических исследований (КИСИ), Казахстан

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