Extending Omnidirectional Hedging Through the Social Dimension of Shelter Theory: Small-State Strategy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Giedrius Kviklys; Sanat Kushkumbayev

doi:10.52536/3006-807X.2026-3.005

Authors

Giedrius Kviklys Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania Author https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9955-6220
Sanat Kushkumbayev Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, Kazakhstan Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7758-0555

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52536/3006-807X.2026-3.005

Keywords:

foreign policy, small states, international relations, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan

Abstract

This article examines the theoretical complementarity between shelter theory and omnidirectional hedging in the foreign policy of small and medium-sized states. Both approaches offer alternatives to traditional concepts such as balancing, bandwagoning, and neutrality, which often fail to explain the multidimensional strategies adopted by states operating in asymmetric geopolitical environments. The article argues that shelter theory and omnidirectional hedging can be integrated into a broader analytical framework by extending omnidirectional hedging to incorporate a social dimension drawn from shelter theory. The proposed framework is particularly relevant for Central Asia, where states navigate corresponding pressures from Russia, China, Western actors, and regional institutions. Through qualitative conceptual analysis and illustrative discussion of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the article demonstrates that hedging is not only a strategy of diplomatic, economic, and security diversification, but also a socially embedded process shaped by domestic legitimacy, societal openness, education, mobility, and public support. Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy and Uzbekistan’s strategy of openness illustrate how social stability and societal development reinforce external diversification and strategic autonomy. By incorporating the social dimension into omnidirectional hedging, the article contributes to small-state foreign policy theory, hedging studies, and Eurasian studies.

Author Biographies

Giedrius Kviklys, Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania

Ph.D. student, Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania
Sanat Kushkumbayev, Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, Kazakhstan

Chief Research Fellow, Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS), Kazakhstan

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