Extending Omnidirectional Hedging Through the Social Dimension of Shelter Theory: Small-State Strategy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Giedrius Kviklys; Sanat Kushkumbayev

doi:10.52536/3006-807X.2026-3.005

Авторлар

Гедрюс Квиклис Витовта Магнус университеті, Литва Автор https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9955-6220
Санат Кушкумбаев Қазақстан стратегиялық зерттеулер институты, Қазақстан Автор https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7758-0555

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52536/3006-807X.2026-3.005

Кілт сөздер:

сыртқы саясат, шағын мемлекеттер, халықаралық қатынастар, Орталық Азия, Қазақстан, Өзбекстан

Аңдатпа

Бұл мақалада шағын және орта мемлекеттердің сыртқы саясатындағы «паналау» теориясы (shelter theory) мен көп бағытты хеджирлеу арасындағы теориялық өзара толықтыру қарастырылады. Екі тәсіл де тепе-теңдік, бір-біріне тәуелділік және бейтараптық сияқты дәстүрлі тұжырымдамаларға балама ұсынады, олар көбінесе асимметриялық геосаяси ортада жұмыс істейтін мемлекеттер қабылдаған көп өлшемді стратегияларды түсіндіре алмайды. Мақалада «паналау» теориясы мен көп бағытты хеджирлеуді «паналау» теориясынан алынған әлеуметтік өлшемді қамту үшін көп бағытты хеджирлеуді кеңейту арқылы кеңірек аналитикалық негізге біріктіруге болатыны айтылады. Ұсынылған негіз, әсіресе, мемлекеттер Ресей, Қытай, Батыс елдері және аймақтық институттардың тиісті қысымына төтеп беретін Орталық Азия үшін өзекті. Мақалада Қазақстан мен Өзбекстанды сапалы тұжырымдамалық талдау және иллюстрациялық талқылау арқылы хеджирлеу тек дипломатиялық, экономикалық және қауіпсіздікті әртараптандыру стратегиясы ғана емес, сонымен қатар ішкі заңдылық, қоғамдық ашықтық, білім беру, мобильділік және қоғамдық қолдаумен қалыптасқан әлеуметтік тұрғыдан енгізілген процесс екені көрсетілген. Қазақстанның көп векторлы сыртқы саясаты және Өзбекстанның ашықтық стратегиясы әлеуметтік тұрақтылық пен қоғамдық дамудың сыртқы әртараптандыру мен стратегиялық автономияны қалай нығайтатынын көрсетеді. Мақала әлеуметтік өлшемді көп бағытты хеджирлеуге енгізу арқылы шағын мемлекеттердің сыртқы саясат теориясына, хеджирлеу зерттеулеріне және еуразиялық зерттеулерге үлес қосады.

Автор өмірбаяндары

Гедрюс Квиклис, Витовта Магнус университеті, Литва

PhD докторанты, Витовта Магнус университеті, Литва
Санат Кушкумбаев, Қазақстан стратегиялық зерттеулер институты, Қазақстан

Бас ғылыми қызметкер, Қазақстан стратегиялық зерттеулер институты (ҚСЗИ), Қазақстан

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