Public Debt Policy Effectiveness in Enabling Sustainable Development in Central Asia

Almagul Mukhamediyeva

doi:10.52536/3006-807X.2025-4.003

Авторы

Алмагуль Мухамедиева Образовательный центр «Парасат», Казахстан Автор https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1138-9763

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52536/3006-807X.2025-4.003

Ключевые слова:

внешний государственный долг, устойчивое развитие, Центральная Азия

Аннотация

Происходящий на фоне существенного отставания от Повестки ООН по устойчивому развитию до 2030 года рост государственного долга актуализирует исследования эффективности государственной долговой политики. В настоящем исследовании изучается влияние государственной долговой политики на устойчивое развитие на примере стран Центральной Азии. Метод регрессии с фиксированными эффектами и фиктивной переменной и метод регрессионного анализа модераторов использованы для тестирования связи между долговым финансированием и направлениями устойчивого развития на основе панельных данных за 1996-2023 годы. Согласно результатам исследования, внешний государственный долг благоприятствует экономическому, социальному и институциональному развитию, негативно при этом сказываясь на окружающей среде. Более того, влияние долгового финансирования меняется в зависимости от результативности государственных политик, обуславливая синергетические, упущенные и конфликтующие эффекты. При подобных политических компромиссах целесообразны обеспечение соответствия фискальной основы и правил принципам устойчивого развития, внедрение стратегического инвестирования заемных ресурсов, а также применение согласующихся с приоритетами устойчивого развития критериев оценки реализации проектов, финансируемых за счет государственного долга.

Биография автора

Алмагуль Мухамедиева, Образовательный центр «Парасат», Казахстан

PhD, Государственная политика и управление, Международный консультант, Советник (внештатный), Образовательный центр «Парасат», Казахстан

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