Geopolitical and Digital Game: The Clash of EU and Russian Interests in Central Asian States

Arsen Maltabarov; Yermek Chukubayev; Meiram Sarybayev; Gulzada Apsattarova

doi:10.52536/3006-807X.2025-4.001

Authors

Arsen Maltabarov Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8864-6049
Yermek Chukubayev Narxoz University, Kazakhstan Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7000-024X
Meiram Sarybayev Narxoz University, Kazakhstan Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8420-9255
Gulzada Apsattarova Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6004-1574

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52536/3006-807X.2025-4.001

Keywords:

Central Asia, EU strategy, game theory, strategic analysis

Abstract

In January 2024, the European Parliament adopted a resolution outlining the EU's strategy towards Central Asia, reaffirming its geopolitical ambitions and its intention to balance the influence of other global powers in the region. This article emphasizes the significance of Russian and Chinese influence in shaping the EU’s approach to Central Asia. Through detailed analysis, the authors examine the main directions of the EU strategy, taking into account political, economic, and social aspects. The main objective of this study is to identify and interpret the strategic motives of all major stakeholders in the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia.

Using an analytical framework based on game theory, this study constructs payoff matrices for the Central Asian countries, the EU, Russia, China, and the United States. The innovative application of game theory in this context offers a new perspective on the strategic calculations of the participating players, highlighting their competing and shared interests. In other words, the authors use game theory as a tool for analyzing strategic interactions between countries.

The presented article belongs to the category of analytical studies and incorporates elements of mathematical modeling. The primary aim of the article is to reveal the interconnection between the strategic interests of external actors and the internal stability of Central Asian countries. The authors have chosen a comprehensive interdisciplinary approach as the basis for their scientific exposition. The use of game theory tools makes the study particularly relevant in the context of current challenges to regional security. This allows for modeling the rational choices of players under conditions of uncertainty. Thus, the work contributes to the academic discussion on multi-level competition in Central Asia. Finally, it proposes tools for further forecasting the dynamics of geopolitical processes.

Author Biographies

Arsen Maltabarov, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan

PhD Candidate, Lecturer of the Department of International Relations and World Economy, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan
Yermek Chukubayev, Narxoz University, Kazakhstan

Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor, Narxoz University, Kazakhstan
Meiram Sarybayev, Narxoz University, Kazakhstan

PhD, Associate Professor, Narxoz University, Kazakhstan
Gulzada Apsattarova, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan

PhD Candidate, Senior Lecturer of the Department of International Relations and World Economy, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan

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