From Reform Convergence to Delivery: Water Governance as a Test of Regional Cooperation in Central Asia

Iskandar Abdullaev

doi:10.52536/3006-807X.2026-3.001

Авторы

Искандар Абдуллаев Международный институт управления водными ресурсами, Узбекистан Автор https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9110-9268

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52536/3006-807X.2026-3.001

Ключевые слова:

Центральная Азия, управление водными ресурсами, региональное сотрудничество, реализация политики, финансирование водного сектора, засуха, региональные общественные блага

Аннотация

Никогда прежде Центральная Азия не была столь хорошо подготовлена к решению своих водных проблем — по крайней мере, на бумаге. Начиная с 2016 года, политическое сближение пяти государств сопровождалось принятием поразительно схожих национальных реформ водного сектора. Эти реформы, поддерживаемые международным финансированием, базируются на принципах интегрированного управления водными ресурсами, бассейнового управления, цифровизации и возмещения затрат. Тем не менее, засуха 2021 года нанесла серьезный ущерб сельскому хозяйству четырех из пяти стран, и регион по-прежнему не готов к следующему засушливому циклу. В данной статье рассматривается вопрос о том, почему сближение подходов к реформированию не привело к обеспечению водной безопасности и какие выводы из этого следует сделать для повестки дня регионального сотрудничества. Автор предлагает трехуровневую аналитическую модель, отслеживающую путь реформ: от их принятия и внедрения в административную и финансовую практику до функционирования в условиях климатического стресса. Модель применяется к данным, полученным в ходе анализа национальных стратегий и законодательства, многолетних полевых исследований (начиная с 2005 года) и экспертных интервью во всех пяти странах. Анализ показывает, что сближение позиций происходит на этапе принятия решений под влиянием распространения транснациональных моделей, региональных политических стимулов и действий центральных органов власти. Однако на этапе практической реализации возникает разрыв: из-за неопределенности прав собственности на активы, политически обусловленных тарифов и дефицита финансирования (составляющего около 40–45% от расчетных потребностей) реформированные институты лишаются возможности эффективно функционировать. В засушливые годы этот разрыв становится очевидным, а его негативные последствия распространяются через трансграничные речные бассейны. В статье делается вывод о том, что способность стран обеспечивать реализацию реформ на местах стала фактором региональной безопасности, а повестка дня сотрудничества должна сместиться от декларативного согласования действий к созданию региональных общественных благ: гармонизированных показателей, протоколов действий в засушливые годы, систем информирования о сезонной засухе и совместно подготовленных инвестиционных проектов, опирающихся на существующие институты.

Биография автора

Искандар Абдуллаев, Международный институт управления водными ресурсами, Узбекистан

Доктор Искандар Абдуллаев вернулся в IWMI в 2024 году и в настоящее время является представителем организации в Пакистане. Параллельно он занимает должность старшего научного сотрудника в офисе IWMI по Центральной Азии (Ташкент, Узбекистан). В период с июня 2023 года по октябрь 2024 года доктор Абдуллаев работал профессором в Центре международных исследований в области развития и окружающей среды (ZEU) при Университете Юстуса Либиха в Гиссене (Германия).

С июня 2019 года по июнь 2023 года доктор Абдуллаев занимал должность заместителя директора программы «Центральноазиатское региональное экономическое сотрудничество» (ЦАРЭС / CAREC). В тот же период (2019–2023 гг.) он также являлся исполнительным директором Регионального экологического центра Центральной Азии (ЦАРЭС / CAREC). Научные интересы д-ра Абдуллаева охватывают вопросы развития и трансформации водного сектора, социально-технические аспекты управления водными ресурсами, историю водопользования, охрану водных ресурсов и изменение климата.

До прихода в ЦАРЭС (в 2009–2013 гг.) доктор Абдуллаев работал региональным советником по программе «Берлинская инициатива — Трансграничное управление водными ресурсами в Центральной Азии» в Германском обществе международного сотрудничества (GIZ). В 2007–2009 годах он был старшим научным сотрудником Центра исследований в области развития (ZEF) при Боннском университете (Германия), где проводил исследования в Центральной Азии и Афганистане.

В период с 2001 по 2007 год д-р Абдуллаев работал региональным исследователем в Международном институте управления водными ресурсами (IWMI, штаб-квартира на Шри-Ланке). Сфера его исследований охватывала Центральную Азию, Иран, Пакистан, Афганистан и Кавказ.

Доктор Искандар Абдуллаев прошел углубленную профессиональную подготовку и обучение в Израиле (1996–1997 гг.), США (1999 г.), Нидерландах (2000 г.) и Швейцарии (2002 г.).

Научные интересы доктора Абдуллаева включают развитие и трансформацию водного сектора, социально-технические аспекты управления водными ресурсами, историю водопользования, охрану водных ресурсов и изменение климата. Доктор Абдуллаев поддерживает тесные связи с научно-исследовательскими организациями и научными сообществами как в регионе, так и во всем мире. Он является членом Международной ассоциации водных ресурсов (IWRA) и входит в состав редакционных советов ряда международных рецензируемых журналов.

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