Linking National Role Conceptions to Foreign Policy Behavior: A Comparative Study of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Aikyz Bauyrzhankyzy

doi:10.52536/3006-807X.2025-4.004

Авторы

Айкыз Бауыржанкызы Агентство Республики Казахстан по делам государственной службы, Казахстан Автор https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2120-6222

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52536/3006-807X.2025-4.004

Ключевые слова:

национальные ролевые концепции, анализ внешней политики, «Евразийский мост» Казахстана, «Независимый актор» Узбекистана

Аннотация

Казахстан и Узбекистан - два ключевых государства Центральной Азии с в целом сходным геополитическим контекстом - после обретения независимости пошли по существенно различным внешнеполитическим траекториям.

Данная статья рассматривает, помогают ли национальные ролевые концепции (NRCs), формируемые лидерами и отражённые в элитном дискурсе, объяснить эти расхождения при сопоставимых структурных условиях. Опираясь на ролевую теорию и анализ внешней политики, исследование трактует NRC как промежуточные объяснительные рамки, связывающие системные ограничения и внутреннюю политику с конкретными решениями, дополняя, а не заменяя реалистские и конструктивистские подходы.

Эмпирическая часть основана на дизайне «наиболее схожих случаев» и контент-анализе 100 речей и интервью Нурсултана Назарбаева и Ислама Каримова (1991–2016 гг.), закодированных по усовершенствованной типологии NRC Наоми Уиш и Калеви Холсти. Полученные ролевые профили сопоставляются с моделями внешнеполитического поведения - участием в региональных организациях, сотрудничеством с западными институтами и односторонними инициативами.

Результаты показывают, что Назарбаев конструировал и выполнял роль «Евразийского моста», подчёркивая многосторонность, посредничество, межцивилизационный диалог и кооперативный регионализм; это проявилось в многовекторной дипломатии Казахстана и его активной роли в региональных и глобальных форумах. Каримов, напротив, формировал роль «Независимого актора», основанную на суверенитете, безопасности режима и оборонной автономии, что выразилось в избирательном, нередко обратимом институциональном участии и осторожном отношении к внешнему влиянию. Статья утверждает, что NRC функционируют как относительно стабильные сценарии, направляющие реакцию лидеров на общие геополитические, экономические и режимные давления, а не как постфактум-легитимация.

В заключении подчёркивается теоретическая и методологическая значимость ролевой теории для анализа внешней политики Центральной Азии и кратко прослеживается адаптация - а не отказ - от ролевых установок Назарбаева и Каримова при Президентах Токаеве и Мирзиееве, что указывает на переход к «осторожной медиации» и «кооперативной независимости».

Биография автора

Айкыз Бауыржанкызы, Агентство Республики Казахстан по делам государственной службы, Казахстан

Научный сотрудник Академии государственного управления при Президенте Республики Казахстан, советник Председателя Агентства Республики Казахстан по делам государственной службы, Казахстан

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