What Comes Next: Сentral Asian Violent ExtremistGroups and Drug Trafficking after the Fall of Kabul

Abstract

The withdrawal of the international forces from Afghanistan will likely increase the role of Central Asian violent extremist groups in the production and transit of illicit goods to and from Afghanistan. While violent extremist groups will maintain the capacity to inspire and perhaps, even carry out limited attacks in Central Asian republics in the short to medium term, their capacity will be limited. Conversely, given the Taliban’s control of the majority of Afghanistan, these same groups will play an increasingly important role in the multi-billion-dollar drug trade stemming from the country. The future of Afghanistan is still far from decided but Central Asian violent extremist organizations will likely play a role in whatever is to come.